Alternative Futures for the Snyderville Basin, Utah
Over the past three years, my framework has become the primary organizational basis of my teaching and research.
The framework identifies six types of questions. Each can be related to a theory-driven modeling type. The models which we typically use require the management of considerable amounts of information, and GIS can be applied--albeit differently--in each type of model.
The framework is "passed through" at least three times in any project: first, downward in defining the context and scope of the project; second, upward in specifying the project methodology; and third, downward in carrying the project forward to its conclusion.
The six questions with their associated modeling types are listed in the order in which they are usually considered when initially defining the context of a landscape planning study.
I How should the state of the landscape be described; in content, boundaries, space, and time? This level of inquiry leads to representation models. [Note that to date, representation has been the major emphasis of GIS.] II How does the landscape operate? What are the functional andstructural relationships among its elements? This level of inquiry leads to process models. III Is the current landscape functioning well? The metrics ofjudgment--whether health, beauty, cost, nutrient flow, or user satisfaction--lead to evaluation models. IV How might the landscape be altered; by what actions, where, and when? This is directly related to I, above, in that both are data; vocabulary and syntax. This fourth level of inquiry leads to change models. At least two important types of change should be considered: change by current projected trends, and change by implementable actions, such as plans, investments, and regulations. V What predictable differences might the changes cause? This isdirectly related to II, above, in that both are based on information; on predictive theory. This fifth level of inquiry shapes impact models, in which the process models (II) are used to simulate change. VI Should the landscape be changed? This is directly related to III, above, in that both are based on knowledge; on cultural values. How is a comparative evaluation among the impacts of alternative changes to be made? This sixth level of inquiryleads to decision models. [Implementation could be considered another level, but this framework considers it as a forward-in-time feedback to level I, the creation of a changed representation model.]
VI To be able to decide to propose or to make a change (or not) one needs to know how to compare alternatives. V To be able to compare alternatives, one needs to predict their impacts from having simulated changes. IV To be able to simulate change, one needs to specify (or design) the changes to be simulated. III To be able to specify potential changes (if any), one needs to evaluate the current conditions. II To be able to evaluate the landscape, one needs to understand how it works; and I To understand how it works, one needs representational schema to describe it. [Again, this has been the major GIS role.]
I representation, II process, III evaluation, IV change, V impact, and VI decision.
At the extreme, two decisions present themselves: "no" and "yes." A "no" implies a backward feedback loop and the need to alter a prior level. All six levels can be the focus of feedback; (IV), "redesign" and sensitivity analysis, is a frequently applied feedback strategy.
A "contingent yes" decision (still a "no") may also trigger a shift in the scale or size or time of the study. (An example is a highway corridor location decision made on the basis of a more detailed alignment analysis). In a scale shift, the study will again proceed through the six levels of the framework, as previously described.
A project should normally continue until it achieves a positive, "yes," decision. (In my area of application, a "do not build" conclusion can be a positive decision). A "yes" decision implies implementation, and (one assumes), a forward-in-time change to new representation models.
While the framework looks orderly and sequential, it frequently is not so in its application. The line through any project is not a smooth path: it has false starts, dead ends, serendipitous discoveries--but the line does pass through the questions and models of the framework as I have described it, before a "yes" can be achieved.
When repeated and linked over scale and time, the framework may be the organizing basis of a very complex study. Regardless of its complexity, the same questions are posed again and again. However, the models, their methods, and their answers vary according to the context.
The following is a recently completed study entitled "Alternative Futures for the Synderville Basin, Summit County, Utah, U.S.A."10 This multi-faceted study, with many links across scale and time, was a collaboration among Harvard University Graduate School of Design (HGSD), Utah State University (USU), and The University of Toronto (UT).
I The Synderville Basin, 180 square kilometers in area, is a 30-minute drive through the Wasatch Mountains from Salt Lake City, Utah. It is the first "open" and developable landscape east of the highly built-up Great Salt Lake Valley. II Today, approximately 10,000 persons live in the County, whose primary economic bases are agriculture and recreation. III Park City and Deer Valley are firmly established as World Classski resorts. IV Salt Lake City is projected to grow from a population of 1 million to 1.5 million during the next 20 to 30 years; the County population is expected to grow by 40,000 persons during that time. There is already land speculation, and almost all private landowners in the Synderville Basin have studied and proposed options for development. V Knowledgeable persons, including the Summit County Commissioners, sense that this rapid growth will generate harmful impacts on the county. VI Despite an historically strong private property ethic and broad-based public interest in controlling growth and change is increasing. The key decision criteria would be to minimize public action, expenditures on infrastructure, and interference with the private housing market, while maintaining a high environmental quality and sense of "openness."
I The study area representation then was completed. The GIS was specified to meet the needs of the requisite models and to be as "lean" as possible, both in categories and scale. It consisted of digital terrain, satellite-derived landcover, ownership, and another half-dozen plan-related map layers. There was a substantial non-GIS "data base" includinginterviews, reports, video and photography. II The key study area processes were then evaluated for their vulnerability to impacts of change. III The current local building code requires evaluations for avalanche zones and flood hazard areas. Additional evaluations included potential sources of water, primarywildlife winter habitat and movement corridors, wetlands, and visual "openness" which, in this landscape, is an undeveloped foreground viewed against a mountain skyline. According to several surveys, this is the type of view that people of the Snyderville Basin value most. These and other vulnerable landscape processes are not protected by the current building regulations. IV Five alternatives for future change were developed to reflect increasing public involvement. Each was driven by market forces guided by public investment and regulation. Each also included several areas for which more detailed design studies were carried out. The existing conditions provided the base for comparison. The first alternative assumes the Development Build-out of the actual proposals of current landowners and was found to accommodate an estimated population of 80,000 persons, twice forseeable demand. In the second alternative, the Development Projection trend at 40,000 persons, one can again expect extensive coverage but lower density. The Cluster Alternative uses conservation- oriented regulations and development-density bonuses to cluster development in and around the meadow area which is the heart of the Snyderville Basin. The Village Alternative is implemented by transfers of development rights among current landholdings creating a series of villages around a larger conserved and restored central meadow area. The New Town Alternative concentrates public infrastructure investment to expedite development of one large private landholding to the east of highway U.S. 40. The resulting revenues would enable major public land purchases. When the five alternatives were configured, the POLYTRIMS program developed by John Danahy and others at the Centre for Landscape Research at the University of Toronto was used for producing computer-generated perspective views and animations of various viewing sequences within the future landscapes. At one point during this simulation stage, the animation programs were controlled at Harvard and simultaneously run on computers in Toronto with the results returned via INTERNET for video image capture at Harvard. Here is an example, comparing existing conditions and legalbuildout, as seen from Interstate 80. V The impacts of the change alternatives were compared according to the GIS-based environmental, social, and economic models. There was a direct relationship: the alternatives performed better as public action increased. VI In summary, there were three reasons to publicly manage growth and change in the Snyderville Basin: 1) to lessen infrastructure investment; 2) to lessen specific environmental impacts; and 3) to preserve the sense of visual openness that this landscape still offers. In the 1992 county election and influenced in part by the public presentation of our study, this decision was made, and a version of the cluster alternative was subsequently implemented by the County.
Carl Steinitz
Graduate School of Design
Harvard University
Recent Paper on the Past, Present and Future Use of the Framework
Click on the icon to retrieve Carl Steintiz's Paper- Geographical Informations Systems: A Personal Historical Perspective, The Framework for a Recent Project, and Some Questions for the Future" devivered at the European Conference on Geographical Information Systems, Genoa, Italy, March 30, 1993
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